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By conducting SWOT analysis, the management can identify and analyze different situations [ 7 ]. Once threats are identified, appropriate measures and decisions may then be taken to convert the threat into an opportunity. The organizational context provides an understanding of the organization, its capability and goals, objectives and strategies.
In establishing the context the identification of stakeholders is critical; these are individuals who may affect, or be affected by decisions made by the risk management team. For example, stakeholders may be employees, volunteers, visitors, insurance organizations, government agencies or suppliers etc. Each stakeholder will have different needs, concerns and opinions; therefore it is important to communicate with the stakeholders involved in the process of addressing risks.
Identification of risk involves a systematic process of examining situations and finding solutions. The process includes stages such as group discussions and brainstorming sessions to generate a variety of ideas.
While all the ideas or issues generated may or may not be relevant, it is important to document all problems, possible impacts and solutions identified. There are four primary areas in which risk can occur in a general business environment:. Risks can be identified by examining records of previous activities or events.
Other ways in which risks could be identified are results from past experiences personal, local or overseas [ 8 ], through conduction interviews of stakeholders example: Susilawati and Armitage [ 8 ] or by analyzing specific real life or generated scenarios.
This step determines and addresses the impact of threats that have been documented. Threats identified are rated according to the likelihood of occurrence. The potential of an identified risk can be estimated by the effect it has on financial and other resources. When analyzing a risk, one decides on the relationship between the likelihood of a risk occurring and the consequences of the risk identified. The level of risk is then defined and management of it is then explored.
Managing risk can be done in several ways such as contingency planning, using existing assets or making an investment in new resources. The levels of the risks can be classified into.
The tools most commonly employed to measure risks include qualitative techniques [ 10 ]. Melton [ 11 ] described the tools as probability and impact analysis tools and Webb [ 4 ] called these likelihood and consequences tools. A risk matrix presentation tool qualitative technique can provide better insights to the nature of a risk. Risk matrix is often used as a tool to display different risks once they have been analyzed. It allows an organization to mark a threshold above which risks will not be tolerated; or will receive additional treatment from the board or delegated staff.
In Figure 3 the threshold is set at risks score of 5 or above. It is then important to ask the following questions in relation to each of the identified risks:. Are there any controls currently in place to manage the risk – if yes then, are there any remaining risks?
Risk matrix Source: adapted from Austrac. In this step the tolerance of the risk is determined; that is, whether the identified risk is acceptable or unacceptable. The evaluation takes into account the following:.
An acceptable risk is a type of risk that that a business can tolerate; a loss for example- the risk does not have major impact on business. An acceptable risk has to be constantly monitored, reviewed and documented so that it remains tolerable. A risk is deemed to be an acceptable risk because of following reasons:. A unacceptable risk is when a business is bound to experience significant losses and such losses cannot be tolerated. In such an event it is important to address and treat the risk in an appropriate manner.
Risks may be dealt with in several ways; it can be avoided, reduced, shared or retained. Risk is avoided when appropriate decisions are taken to eliminate all possible pitfalls thereby preventing the situation from occurrence.
In most decision making processes, calculations are made and ideas are contemplated to strike a balance between the cost and effect.
In such situations calculated risks are accepted and a high risk situation may be reduced by:. In other cases, risk is shared between the stake holders in terms of how profits and losses are shared. This is done mainly to share the impact of a risky event when it occurs. For example, in the era of globalization it is challenging for the companies to enter new markets and countries.
In order to minimize uncertainty and exploit business situations that may exist, companies often decide to share risk; careful consideration and research undertaken by the companies often suggest risk sharing. Risk sharing develops opportunities while engaging all partners in achieving strategic goals and the gains and loss are then shared accordingly.
The nature of strategies to mitigate risk often depends on the experience of the risk manager who may consider one or more of the following [ 3 ]:. It seems the simplest of all methods of addressing a risk is by retaining an identified risk that may not potentially impact upon the operations of a business.
It is important to continuously monitor such risks for in the absence of careful monitoring, the risks may become threats in due time. A dedication towards risk management often projects a wiser professional image to the community. In doing so, the stake holders recognize the fact that the concerned organization has a keen interest in safeguarding its assets as well as that of its employees, visitors and volunteers among others.
Every organization irrespective of size clearly strives to reduce the risks involved. In order to reduce risk organizations have to align their policies and structures in a consistent manner and constantly monitor business activities. Also, there is a need to allocate resources financial, human resource, technology etc.
It is also important to ensure personnel working at different levels in the organization report to the appropriate authorities when a risk is identified. Such a culture enables an organization to document and then undertake suitable and timely measures to avert risks. In the risk management process, data capture and reporting can provide valuable insights into the risk management process. A sample risk management planning template is shown in Table 1.
As discussed, risk management team play a vital role in identifying and addressing risks. It is necessary to constantly monitor and evaluate the strategies that are employed to manage risks. This is because risks do not remain the same – new risks are created, existing risks are increased or decreased, some risks may no longer exist and previous or existing risk management strategies may no longer be effective.
In the end risks can originate from accidents, legal liabilities, natural causes and disasters, uncertainty in financial markets, credit risk, project failures at any phase in design, development, production, or sustainment life-cycles , or events of unpredictable root-cause. The risk management definitions, methods and goals vary widely according to the context of project management, security, engineering, industrial processes, financial portfolios, actuarial assessments, public health and safety and real estate.
An important aim of the paper is to study and review the real estate market in Australia to identify risk and rewards as well as compare the Australian market conditions and performance with the rest of the world. Therefore, the focus of the next section is on risks in the real estate market.
Types of risk in real estate market. As is the case with every other industry, there are several risks in the real estate market. For example, there exists a risk factor in land procurement; housing development; asset management; property management; tenancy management to name a few [ 13 ].
The risks may be classified as internal or external risks Figure 4. In turn, the internal and external risks can be divided into various other risk categories shown in Figure 5 and Figure 6 [ 14 ]. Builders, project managers, owners and investors who plan to make an investment or hold an investment in the property market may need to consider one or more of the following risks and then implement appropriate strategies for their projects to be successful.
Internal risk can be divided into financial management, human resources, property management, legislative compliance, corporate governance and housing management as shown in Figure 5. Financial management: A detailed analysis of any proposed or existing projects need to be conducted for project viability.
It is also important to plan the cash flow and management of the same. A poor cost control may lead to a budget over shoot and the project may run into un-chartered territories. When it comes to servicing the debt due care needs to be given to income streams – to take into account either reduction or loss of future income streams. In this regard, banking organisations need to be diligent in testing the capacity to repay the loans that are being offered. Fraud often occurs in real estate market mainly involving the use of false documents regarding number of properties, outgoing fees or rates, income streams and so on.
Internal risk Source: adapted from Sheryl and Adam [ 14 ]. Insurance also plays a vital role in financial management of a project or investment. Adequate insurance is needed to cover the various risks that may be involved such as the type of property, its location, exposure to natural calamities etc. Insurance also need to be updated with the changes in conditions. Property management of a construction project: During the construction of a new project the builders needs to plan their inventory and keep control of their stocks irrespective of the size of the project.
Stock control starts from buying goods to using and maintaining them, and also reusing or reordering as required. Quality of the stock also plays a vital role in real estate business. To maintained quality several techniques are adapted. Just in time technique where items are ordered when necessary and used immediately , minimum stock level technique and stock review technique. Contractors play an important role in success of a construction project.
They are responsible for recruitment and supervision of employees working on the project. Contractors are also responsible for material management coordinating with suppliers thus acquiring necessary goods in time for the construction phases. Poor response from the contractors or failure to perform their duties will delay the project and overshoot budgets.
Legislation compliance: Often a property holder has to disclose his personal and financial information to third party. Protecting information plays a key issue in this business.
Once all the parties are ready to proceed it is necessary to have a privacy act is in place so that all information is secure. The corporation act provides the guidelines for conflicts or issues arising in construction or maintenance of a property.
There are several agencies that provide comprehensive legal services to better understand the litigations involved. Anti-discrimination law and disability service act also play an important role in real-estate.
Property owners are liable for any discriminatory acts. It is important to report any hazard or incident and all incidents should be attended to and documented for future reference. Corporate governance: Corporate governance plays an important role in risk management in the real estate industry.
It is important to properly align the ideas, interests and decisions of managers to the interests of both internal and external shareholders. For example, failure to recruit appropriate personnel may lead to conflicts of interest. If the conflicts are not managed effectively they may have a substantial impact on the company bottom line. It is also expected that the managements re-inspect and update their policies and procedures to meet the market trends and demands of all concerned stakeholders.
Housing management: A holistic management of the investment made in real estate can be defined as housing management. Housing management includes keeping track of maintenance and financial arrangements. As a common and popular practice the management of an investment property is outsourced to property management companies who appoint property managers to manage and oversee duties as required.
Property managers on a daily basis are responsible for taking maintenance requests, collecting rent, dues or other fees and are responsible for the overall upkeep of the property. They also perform routine property inspections and organize inspections for the owners. Poor performance of the property managers leads to more grievances for the tenants as well as the owners.
External risk depends on a number of factors such as economic risk, funding, regulation, environment, reputation, competition, partnerships and natural disasters Figure 2.
Each of the factors noted are discussed briefly in turn. Funding: The availability of funding depends on a number of aspects such as the economic situation in general, market performance, and credit based upon any future cash flow. Some factors that influence economic performance are: change in political regime, rise in the price of raw materials, emergence of a new competitor and disruptions in production process.
Market performance usually depends on changes in interest rates, changes in laws, and political and financial market factors. The risk of loss of principal or loss of a financial reward stemming from a borrower’s failure to repay a loan or otherwise meet a contractual obligation falls under the funding risk. It is important to take into consideration as many of the previously mentioned factors while undertaking an investment decision, even when one already has an investment portfolio.
Investors often anticipate future cash flow situations while borrowing money to pay a current debt. The failure of the anticipated cash flow leads to credit risk. However credit risk can be considered less likely since most often the investors are compensated by way of interest payments made by the borrower in end. Regulatory environment: Investors in real estate projects should be aware of the local, state and federal laws and regulations.
These laws depend on economic, credit and market risk as explained above. Failure to comply with the rules and regulation often leads to delays or in the worst case – complete scrapping of the project; all of which may lead to a complete or partial loss of capital invested.
Reputation: The reputation of a project developer often attracts investor attention and also provides favorable environment for investments. Joint ventures and partnerships are possible if the reputations are well known and have been built over time – providing partners the opportunities to win potentially new clients and investors, as well greater opportunities for new investments.
An investment made into a company with poor credit history may end up losses of the principle amount invested. It could also be wise for an investor to know the value of the tangible and intangible assets and the market value of the organization into which an investment is being planned. Competition: Property market plays an important role in the economy. There are several players in the market who usually try to attract investors.
It is possible that in the process the investors may receive inappropriate financial advice. For example, consumers may not be aware of non-disclosed information pertaining to advice they receive. Partnership: Partnership plays an important role in investing, as it reduces the impact of potential risk on the individual or company investment. For an investor to be successful in a real-estate partnership it is important to know the partner well and therefore trust plays a vital role.
The role of each partner does need to be well defined and documented. Having a clear legal document will protect the interest of all partners. It also important to plan and document an exit strategy for all involved, because personal situations may change over time. Clearly, before a partnership agreement is made it is necessary to conduct a detail research to become self-confident about the deal.
Natural disasters: In the real real-estate market, location plays an important factor in the investment decision. A property purchased at an appropriate location is expected to provide a good return on the investment.
One of the main factors affecting location is the potential exposure to natural calamities such as bushfires, floods, sea level raise and erosion to name a few. If the location has a history or is likely to be exposed to a natural disaster it can be expected that the property prices will eventually be exposed to the risk.
Therefore, it is wise to not be enticed into such toxic locations. Other factors that need to be accounted for are the costs of maintenance of properties and the nature and level of insurance required for risky locations, if chosen.
It is certain that there are many risks involved in real-estate market as mentioned. While real-estate provides variety of investment options every investor has to find their comfort level upon taking risks involved. It is not easy to decide if a selected property for investment is appropriate, but the decision should be made based on the consideration of all the factors discussed earlier.
In the end however, the willingness to take risks largely depends upon individual preferences and circumstances. The elements that usually determine the scale of risk or reward are the amount of money that is invested, length of time investment, rate of return or property appreciation, depreciation, fees, taxes, inflation etc. While it is natural for the individual and organizations to invest and expect returns it is important the investors make the informed choice to reduce the odds of losing the principle invested.
The potential risks and rewards in investing in the Australian real estate market are investigated next. The speculation about Australian housing market has been intense since The classic sign of an asset bubble. The house price-to-income ratio has been the main focus in Australia.
The house price-to-income ratio is comparatively high when compared to other countries. In the next sections a discussion of the fundamentals that govern the house prices in Australian residential housing market is examined.
Also, the potential risks and rewards to the investors are explored in terms of the risk analysis framework presented earlier. Since the U. Moreover, it is observed that the house price-to-income ratio levels are at levels that are similar to that in the US before the housing market there crashed in However, it is important to analyze the fundamentals that govern Australian residential market price growth against the rest of world.
In the US, the residential finance system played a significant role in the housing bubble of The regulation, residential finance institutional arrangements, and mortgage characteristics aided the excessive demand for housing finance. Housing finance was available and offered to borrowers with poor borrowing capacities. Consequently, excessive borrowing led to the housing bubble and the collapse of the financial system in the U. S in There are some fundamental differences in the lending practice in Australia when compared to the US [ 21 ].
In Australia the lending process is highly regulated by the institutional arrangement. The lending practices enforce the regulatory provisions on financial institutions forcing them to avoid excessive risk taking behavior. Table 2 outlines the characteristics of housing loans both in the U. S and in Australia. The table highlights the systemic susceptibility to riskier mortgages in the US and that availability of such funds to finance the mortgages were more common than in Australia.
Negative amortization loans are common in the US but no such loans existed in Australia at the time of the crisis. This is also deters financial institutions from offering risky loans.
These primary differences stand out to support and contribute to a relatively strong performance of the housing loans in Australia when compared to the US. It is important to note that the share of non-performing loans in Australia were less than 1.
Another fundamental difference is that there is no government sponsored enterprise GSE in Australia while they exist in the US. This potentially provides an impression that bad loans offered to borrowers with poor repayment capacity would be covered by the Federal Government [ 23 ]. The commercial banks are mainly funded by the bank deposits, short term and long-term wholesale debt [ 24 ].
The absence of the so called Federal guarantee restricts Australian banks from any excessive risk taking behavior. The Loan to Value Ratio LVR refers to the amount of money borrowed against the total value of the property in a home equity loan. The value of the property is determined by the lender and is often significantly less than the purchase price, which often surprise first-time borrowers. Typically, the amount that lenders have been prepared to lend for housing has been restricted by one or both of the following:.
The analysis presented in the previous section shows that Australia is fundamentally different to the US when it comes to the residential housing market. But, how does Australia compare to the other countries in the world? New research conducted by Lloyds TSB [ 27 ] – International Global Housing Market Review, shows that Australia just made it into the top 10 list of countries with the highest house price increases over the past decade Table 3.
Four of the six top performing housing markets since were in the emerging economies of the world. Other major findings of the research include:.
Countries that had large rises in pre-crisis times lost the most after the GFC affected their economies; and. But Spain has seen a major decline in The performance of the established house prices in Australian housing market provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics ABS is presented in Figure 8.
The Australian housing over the past five years has seen some corrections. Prior to GFC, there has been a considerable growth in the established housing prices. This growth pattern however changed course and reached the worst levels in August when the GFC was setting in.
However, the prices of established homes climbed steeply during the peak of the GFC when markets around the world were playing havoc. This defiance could be mainly attributed to the management initiatives taken by the RBA [ 21 ] and government of Australia. The RBA drastically reduced the interest rates to a record low of 3. This led to flood of first home buyers entering the market that drove the prices up against all odds. Since the time the incentives have been wound back, and the market and investor sentiment took over.
This led to a fall in the growth when compared to the preceding three years and has been mostly in the low sentiment in the past two years.
Therefore, although Australian market prices are influenced by the global events, a collapse similar to that seen in markets elsewhere seems appears a distant possibility. This can be attributed to the underlying government incentives to manage the risks during the crisis. Other micro-economics aspects also helped manage the downturn. Australian annual house price change in the last decade. House prices have been underpinned by a chronic housing shortage in Australia.
This was brought about by an ever increasing population and constraints placed on housing supply over time. Figure 9 shows the increase in population growth from both natural growth and migration since From to September natural population growth has only seen a marginal increase, but during the same period the net overseas migration growth has been substantial. Trend of natural population increase and net overseas migration. Figure 10 shows that there has been an increase in the total population by about 1.
However, given that there has been a large influx of people into Australia, the question was whether there was enough housing infrastructure in place. Net overseas migration and components of population change.
Figure 11 shows the trend in the population and dwellings commenced from January to October As shown earlier, the population growth showed an upward trend over the entire period. The number of dwellings commenced shows a rather distressing trend. Figure 11 shows the commencement of new dwellings significantly fell short and did not keep pace with the rapid growth in population. For an addition of 1.
Interestingly, this situation presents a case for more property investment as people search for a place to live. Historically, Australia has been behind in the demand versus supply of residential dwellings, but more so in the last decade than any time earlier. Figure 12 shows the dwelling gap in the previous decade. Australia continues to run large annual deficits in housing supply – the underlying demand for dwellings and the completion of dwellings has not matched.
Trend in the number of dwellings commenced and population. Estimated dwelling gap in the last decade. National housing supply council NHSC estimates a demand versus supply gap of approximately houses in ; and an increase in the gap from in Figure 13 shows the projections in the supply gap to The figure shows an increase over time till , and indeed a higher rate of increase predicted from till Supply and demand gap projections to To examine whether the situation is the same throughout Australia or mainly confined to a few states, data from all the states are explored in more depth.
Their data runs against the trend for the last decade but more so during The larger states of New South Wales NSW , Victoria Vic , Queensland Qld and Western Australia WA all continue to have high deficits year after year and the deficit is increasing — however, Victoria being an exception in where it managed to go against the trend temporarily Figure To further understand the nature of the differences between states, the net population increase in the demand across states needs to be compared.
Figure 15 shows the state by state net change in population as well as housing issues. The states with a high influx of population showed higher dwelling demand. Not surprisingly, the high demand has led to a rather strong rental market particularly in the larger states and this has provided an impetus for higher rental returns and an ideal time for new investors to consider for the longer term. With recent housing approvals declining, this demand supply gap can only be expected to widen.
Clearly, the population increase cannot only be driving the market. Therefore, other aspects need investigation such as house price to income ratio; and house hold debt to income ratio.
Housing demand and supply by states. Net population change – state by state over The house price-to-income ratio is generally calculated using average income of the whole population. This method of calculating house price may not be appropriate in that a set of buyers whose incomes are above the average income of the wider population, and have the ability to service the loans tend to bid in the auctions there by inflating house prices [ 28 ].
Such competition is visible across all capital cities but more so in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth and Canberra than other cities.
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